Current Investment Traffic Lights
September 2025 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights
Equities Developed Markets
In September, the stock markets in industrialized countries were predominantly positive. The US, Japanese and eurozone equity markets in particular made gains, while German, British and Swiss equities barely moved. ETFs in all categories recorded inflows of funds, with the exception of products on German equities, which saw an outflow of money. The CIO outlook remained unchanged compared to the previous month.
Equities Emerging Markets
Emerging market equities continued their upward trend in September. New investor money flowed primarily into ETFs on global emerging market equities and Chinese indices. There were no changes in the CIO view.
Sovereign Bonds
Prices held steady on the government bond markets in September. Investors preferred ETFs on emerging market securities, while money flowed out of products on US government bonds. The CIO outlook remained unchanged.
Corporate Bonds
There was also little movement in corporate bond prices in September. Fresh investment capital flowed into ETFs on European investment-grade securities and US high-yield bonds, while products on US investment-grade corporate bonds recorded outflows. The CIO outlook remained constant.
Commodities
The broad basket of commodities rose in September and gold also increased in price. Both ETF categories benefited from inflows, but the CIO outlook deteriorated from positive to neutral in each case.
The concept of the Asset Allocation Traffic Light
Defining and applying the correct asset allocation – that is, the distribution of the various components in a portfolio – can be crucial for a portfolio's returns. Risk diversification can be indispensable, and therefore more important than, the choice of a single correct investment exposure. Many investors now intuitively understand the importance of asset allocation in terms of establishing a risk-diversified portfolio. In this case, the Asset Allocation Traffic Light could serve as an information guide to assist in making future investment decisions. The Asset Allocation Traffic Light provides information at a glance on developments in the main equity, bond and commodity categories. To this end, three analyses are clearly summarised for a total of 29 categories.
Asset Allocation Traffic Light – Threefold information for investment decisions
- According to the CIO View:
The DWS Chief Investment Office (CIO) outlook for the next 1-3 months - How the markets performed in the previous month:
Performance of a representative index for the respective category in the preceding month (e.g. the MSCI World for global equities in developed countries) - What ETF flows were like in the global equity, bond and commodity markets: inflows and outflows in approx. 1,500 ETFs in the European ETF market in the previous month
Disclaimer
Source: ETF flows: DWS, Bloomberg; Performance: Reuters; CIO View: CIO Office DWS. China equity views are given relative compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. All other equity views are given in relation to the MSCI AC World Index
Without limitation, information contained herein does not constitute an offer, an invitation to offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction, nor does it constitute investment advice. The CIO View is a document produced for information purposes only and is not intended to be an offer or solicitation, or the basis for any contract to purchase or sell any security, or other instrument, or for Deutsche Bank to enter into or arrange any type of transaction as a consequence of any information contained herein. The information contained herein, inclusive of the CIO View, has been prepared without consideration of the investment needs, objectives or financial circumstances of any investor. Before making an investment decision, investors need to consider whether the investments are appropriate, in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. When making an investment decision, investors should rely on the final documentation relating to the investment. Further information is available upon investor’s request. The "green" indicator for a category does not mean that DWS recommends an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. The "red" indicator for a category does not mean that DWS advises against an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results and no guarantee is assumed that forecasts and objectives will actually be fulfilled. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, beliefs and hypothetical models or analyses that may prove to be incorrect. No guarantee can be assumed that investment goals will be achieved or earnings expectations met.
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August 2025 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights
Equities Developed Markets
Share prices stagnated on many stock markets in industrialized countries in August. However, the broad index for global industrialized country equities posted gains, as did the indices for Swiss and Japanese equities. Investors withdrew money from ETFs in the latter category in August, while cash flows stagnated for products linked to German and Swiss equities; otherwise, there were inflows. The CIO view remained unchanged from the previous month.
Equities Emerging Markets
There was little movement in the prices of equities from the global emerging markets and Asia ex-Japan categories in August. Only indices tracking Chinese equities posted gains. Fresh investor money flowed into ETFs tracking global emerging market equities, while fund flows in other ETF categories stagnated. There was no change in the CIO outlook.
Sovereign Bonds
Prices remained virtually unchanged across all government bond indices in August. Cash flows into ETFs tracking German and global government bonds also stagnated, while products tracking US and emerging market bonds attracted new investor money. The CIO view deteriorated from positive to neutral for German and US government bonds.
Corporate Bonds
As with government bonds, there was little movement in corporate bond prices in August. However, ETFs across all categories attracted fresh investor money. The CIO outlook remained unchanged.
Commodities
Gold rose in price in August, and corresponding products based on the precious metal saw inflows of funds. The broad commodity basket stagnated in terms of performance, and there were also hardly any fund movements in the corresponding products. The CIO view improved from neutral to positive in both categories.
July 2025 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights
Equities Developed Markets
In July, share prices stagnated on most stock markets in industrialized countries. Only UK and US equities achieved notable gains. Fresh investor money flowed into ETFs on developed market equities worldwide, European equities, eurozone equities and US equities. There were capital outflows from products on Japanese and British equities, otherwise the movement of funds stagnated. The CIO View remained unchanged compared to the previous month.
Equities Emerging Markets
The equity indices Asia ex Japan and China recorded price gains in July, while there were hardly any fund flows in the corresponding ETF categories. New capital flowed into products on emerging market equities worldwide. Their prices barely budged in July. There was no change in the CIO outlook.
Sovereign Bonds
All government bond indices recorded only minimal price movements in July. Fresh investor money flowed into ETFs on US government bonds, while there were outflows from products on global government bonds and hardly any movements in the other categories. The CIO view for German and US government bonds improved from neutral to positive.
Corporate Bonds
The indices for corporate bonds also stagnated in July. ETFs on European and US investment-grade bonds and European high-yield securities recorded inflows. There was hardly any movement in funds for products on US high-yield bonds. The CIO outlook remained unchanged.
Commodities
The performance of both the broad basket of commodities and gold stagnated in July. The flow of funds for products based on the broad basket of commodities also stagnated, while gold products were able to attract new investor capital. The CIO outlook remained unchanged in both areas.
June 2025 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights
Equities Developed Markets
In June, the stock markets in the USA, Japan and the global industrialized countries recorded price gains. Prices on the Swiss stock exchange fell. There was little change in the stock indices in Germany, the UK, the eurozone and Europe. New investor money flowed into all ETF categories. The exceptions were products based on UK equities and eurozone stocks, where the flow of funds stagnated. There was no change in the CIO View compared to the previous month.
Equities Emerging Markets
The prices of all emerging market indices rose in June and ETFs on the corresponding categories recorded capital inflows. The CIO outlook for emerging market equities remained constant compared to May.
Sovereign Bonds
The price performance of government bonds stagnated in June. Only emerging market securities recorded gains. There were capital inflows into ETFs on global government bonds and emerging market securities. Money flowed out of products on US government bonds in June, while there was hardly any movement in ETFs on German government bonds. The CIO view for emerging market government bonds changed from negative to neutral.
Corporate Bonds
US dollar bonds with an investment grade rating recorded a positive performance in June, while prices stagnated in the other categories. There were capital inflows into ETFs on high-yield bonds from the USA and Europe as well as European investment-grade securities. ETFs on investment-grade bonds from the USA recorded hardly any movements in funds. The CIO outlook remained unchanged.
Commodities
The performance of gold stagnated in June, while the broad basket of commodities recorded gains. Both products on gold and the broad basket of commodities attracted fresh investor capital. The CIO view on gold changed from positive to neutral.
As of 30.06.2017
Source: ETF flows: Deutsche Bank Research; Performance: Reuters; CIO View: CIO Office Deutsche Asset Management. Emerging Markets equity views are given relative compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. All other equity views are given in relation to the MSCI AC World Index
Without limitation, information contained herein does not constitute an offer, an invitation to offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction, nor does it constitute investment advice. The CIO View is a document produced for information purposes only and is not intended to be an offer or solicitation, or the basis for any contract to purchase or sell any security, or other instrument, or for Deutsche Bank to enter into or arrange any type of transaction as a consequence of any information contained herein. The information contained herein, inclusive of the CIO View, has been prepared without consideration of the investment needs, objectives or financial circumstances of any investor. Before making an investment decision, investors need to consider whether the investments are appropriate, in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. When making an investment decision, investors should rely on the final documentation relating to the investment. Further information is available upon investor’s request. The "green" indicator for a category does not mean that Deutsche AM recommends an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. The "red" indicator for a category does not mean that Deutsche AM advises against an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results and no guarantee is assumed that forecasts and objectives will actually be fulfilled. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, beliefs and hypothetical models or analyses that may prove to be incorrect. No guarantee can be assumed that investment goals will be achieved or earnings expectations met.