Current Investment Traffic Lights
December 2025 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights
Equities Developed Markets
In December, the stock markets of industrialised countries moved in two different directions. While equities in Germany, the UK, Switzerland, the eurozone and Europe recorded gains, global developed market equities as well as US and Japanese stocks showed little movement. ETFs across most categories recorded inflows, whereas products focused on German equities saw outflows. The CIO outlook remained unchanged compared with the previous month.
Equities Emerging Markets
Emerging market equities developed positively in December. Equities from emerging markets globally as well as Asia ex Japan and China recorded gains. ETFs tracking global emerging market equities and Chinese equities attracted inflows. The CIO view remained unchanged.
Government Bonds
Government bond markets were broadly stable in December. Fresh investor capital flowed into ETFs tracking US and global government bonds, while products focused on German government bonds recorded outflows. The CIO outlook for US government bonds improved from neutral to positive, while it remained unchanged in the other categories.
Corporate Bonds
Corporate bond markets showed little movement in December. ETFs tracking US investment-grade bonds recorded inflows, while European investment-grade products saw outflows. Flows into US and European high-yield bond ETFs stagnated. The CIO outlook remained unchanged.
Commodities
Both the broad commodities basket and gold showed little movement in December. Nevertheless, both ETF categories benefited from inflows. The CIO outlook remained unchanged.
The concept of the Asset Allocation Traffic Light
Defining and applying the correct asset allocation – that is, the distribution of the various components in a portfolio – can be crucial for a portfolio's returns. Risk diversification can be indispensable, and therefore more important than, the choice of a single correct investment exposure. Many investors now intuitively understand the importance of asset allocation in terms of establishing a risk-diversified portfolio. In this case, the Asset Allocation Traffic Light could serve as an information guide to assist in making future investment decisions. The Asset Allocation Traffic Light provides information at a glance on developments in the main equity, bond and commodity categories. To this end, three analyses are clearly summarised for a total of 29 categories.
Asset Allocation Traffic Light – Threefold information for investment decisions
- According to the CIO View:
The DWS Chief Investment Office (CIO) outlook for the next 1-3 months - How the markets performed in the previous month:
Performance of a representative index for the respective category in the preceding month (e.g. the MSCI World for global equities in developed countries) - What ETF flows were like in the global equity, bond and commodity markets: inflows and outflows in approx. 1,500 ETFs in the European ETF market in the previous month
Disclaimer
Source: ETF flows: DWS, Bloomberg; Performance: Reuters; CIO View: CIO Office DWS. China equity views are given relative compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. All other equity views are given in relation to the MSCI AC World Index
Without limitation, information contained herein does not constitute an offer, an invitation to offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction, nor does it constitute investment advice. The CIO View is a document produced for information purposes only and is not intended to be an offer or solicitation, or the basis for any contract to purchase or sell any security, or other instrument, or for Deutsche Bank to enter into or arrange any type of transaction as a consequence of any information contained herein. The information contained herein, inclusive of the CIO View, has been prepared without consideration of the investment needs, objectives or financial circumstances of any investor. Before making an investment decision, investors need to consider whether the investments are appropriate, in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. When making an investment decision, investors should rely on the final documentation relating to the investment. Further information is available upon investor’s request. The "green" indicator for a category does not mean that DWS recommends an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. The "red" indicator for a category does not mean that DWS advises against an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results and no guarantee is assumed that forecasts and objectives will actually be fulfilled. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, beliefs and hypothetical models or analyses that may prove to be incorrect. No guarantee can be assumed that investment goals will be achieved or earnings expectations met.
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November 2025 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights
Equities Developed Markets
In November, developed equity markets largely moved sideways. Swiss equities showed positive momentum, while Japanese stocks declined. ETFs across most categories recorded inflows, whereas products focused on German equities experienced outflows. The CIO outlook for European equities deteriorated from positive to neutral, while it remained unchanged in all other segments.
Equities Emerging Markets
Emerging market equities showed a mixed performance in November. While indices for emerging markets globally and Asia ex Japan declined, Chinese equities saw little movement. ETFs across all categories attracted fresh investor capital. The CIO view remained unchanged compared with the previous month.
Sovereign Bonds
Government bond markets were broadly stable in November. Fresh capital flowed into ETFs tracking global, US and emerging market government bonds, while demand for German government bond products stagnated. The CIO outlook remained unchanged across all categories.
Corporate Bonds
Corporate bond prices showed little movement in November. ETFs tracking US and European investment-grade bonds recorded inflows, while flows into European high-yield products stagnated. By contrast, US high-yield bond ETFs saw outflows. The CIO outlook remained unchanged.
Commodities
The broad commodities basket showed little movement in November, while gold prices increased. Both ETF categories benefited from inflows. The CIO outlook remained unchanged.
October 2025 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights
Equities Developed Markets
In October, stock markets in industrialized countries showed mostly positive trends. Only German and Swiss stock prices remained largely unchanged. Fresh investor capital flowed into ETFs in most categories, with only products tracking German and British stocks seeing outflows. The CIO outlook for German stocks improved from neutral to positive.
Equities Emerging Markets
The stock markets of emerging markets worldwide and in the Asia ex-Japan region performed well in October, while Chinese indices stagnated. There were capital inflows into ETFs across all categories. No changes were made to the CIO View compared with the previous month.
Sovereign Bonds
Prices on government bond markets remained stable in October. Fresh investment capital flowed into ETFs on government bonds worldwide, in the US, and in emerging markets. There were outflows from products on German government bonds. The CIO outlook remained unchanged in all categories.
Corporate Bonds
There was little movement in corporate bond prices in October. New investor money flowed into all ETF categories. The CIO view changed from positive to neutral for European investment-grade bonds.
Commodities
Prices for the broad basket of commodities remained virtually unchanged in October, while gold rose in value. However, investor capital flowed out of ETFs in both segments. The CIO outlook remained unchanged.
September 2025 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights
Equities Developed Markets
In September, the stock markets in industrialized countries were predominantly positive. The US, Japanese and eurozone equity markets in particular made gains, while German, British and Swiss equities barely moved. ETFs in all categories recorded inflows of funds, with the exception of products on German equities, which saw an outflow of money. The CIO outlook remained unchanged compared to the previous month.
Equities Emerging Markets
Emerging market equities continued their upward trend in September. New investor money flowed primarily into ETFs on global emerging market equities and Chinese indices. There were no changes in the CIO view.
Sovereign Bonds
Prices held steady on the government bond markets in September. Investors preferred ETFs on emerging market securities, while money flowed out of products on US government bonds. The CIO outlook remained unchanged.
Corporate Bonds
There was also little movement in corporate bond prices in September. Fresh investment capital flowed into ETFs on European investment-grade securities and US high-yield bonds, while products on US investment-grade corporate bonds recorded outflows. The CIO outlook remained constant.
Commodities
The broad basket of commodities rose in September and gold also increased in price. Both ETF categories benefited from inflows, but the CIO outlook deteriorated from positive to neutral in each case.
As of 30.06.2017
Source: ETF flows: Deutsche Bank Research; Performance: Reuters; CIO View: CIO Office Deutsche Asset Management. Emerging Markets equity views are given relative compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. All other equity views are given in relation to the MSCI AC World Index
Without limitation, information contained herein does not constitute an offer, an invitation to offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction, nor does it constitute investment advice. The CIO View is a document produced for information purposes only and is not intended to be an offer or solicitation, or the basis for any contract to purchase or sell any security, or other instrument, or for Deutsche Bank to enter into or arrange any type of transaction as a consequence of any information contained herein. The information contained herein, inclusive of the CIO View, has been prepared without consideration of the investment needs, objectives or financial circumstances of any investor. Before making an investment decision, investors need to consider whether the investments are appropriate, in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. When making an investment decision, investors should rely on the final documentation relating to the investment. Further information is available upon investor’s request. The "green" indicator for a category does not mean that Deutsche AM recommends an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. The "red" indicator for a category does not mean that Deutsche AM advises against an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results and no guarantee is assumed that forecasts and objectives will actually be fulfilled. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, beliefs and hypothetical models or analyses that may prove to be incorrect. No guarantee can be assumed that investment goals will be achieved or earnings expectations met.