Investment Traffic Lights

February 2025 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights

Equities Developed Markets

In February, the German and Swiss stock markets as well as the eurozone and European share indices recorded price gains. Performance on the US and UK stock markets stagnated, as did the broad index of industrialized countries. Japan's stock market suffered price losses. Fresh investor capital flowed into equity ETFs on almost all industrialized stock markets. Investors withdrew money from ETFs on UK equities alone. The CIO outlook remained unchanged.

Equities Emerging Markets

China equities recorded price gains in February, while prices stagnated on the other emerging market stock exchanges. New investor money flowed into ETFs in all emerging market categories. The CIO view for Chinese equities improved from neutral to positive.

Sovereign Bonds

US government bond prices rose in February, while prices in other categories stagnated. New investor money flowed into ETFs on German and US government bonds, while the movement of funds stagnated in the other categories. The CIO outlook for US government bonds changed from positive to neutral.

Corporate Bonds

US corporate bonds recorded price gains in February, while there was little price movement in the other categories. Fresh investor money flowed into all corporate bond ETFs categories – with the exception of products on European high-yield securities. There was no change in the CIO View.

Commodities

Gold prices rose in February, while the performance of the broad basket of commodities stagnated. ETFs in both categories saw inflows. The CIO view on gold changed from positive to neutral.

	Performance 01.02.-28.02.2025	ETF-Flows 01.02.-28.02.2025	CIO View for the next 1-3 months
Equities Developed Markets
Equities Global
Equities Germany
Equities UK
Equities Switzerland
Equities Eurozone
Equities Europe
Equities USA
Equities Japan
Equities Emerging Markets
Equities Emerging Markets globally
Equities Asia ex Japan
Equities China
Bond Market
Sovereigns Germany
USD Corporate IG
USD Corporate HY
Sovereigns USA
Europe Corporate IG
Europe Corporate HY
Sovereigns Emerging Markets
Sovereigns globally
Money Market
Money market EURO
Money market US-Dollar
Commodities
Broad based Commodities
Gold

The concept of the Asset Allocation Traffic Light

Defining and applying the correct asset allocation – that is, the distribution of the various components in a portfolio – can be crucial for a portfolio's returns. Risk diversification can be indispensable, and therefore more important than, the choice of a single correct investment exposure. Many investors now intuitively understand the importance of asset allocation in terms of establishing a risk-diversified portfolio. In this case, the Asset Allocation Traffic Light could serve as an information guide to assist in making future investment decisions. The Asset Allocation Traffic Light provides information at a glance on developments in the main equity, bond and commodity categories. To this end, three analyses are clearly summarised for a total of 29 categories.

Asset Allocation Traffic Light – Threefold information for investment decisions

According to the CIO View:
The DWS Chief Investment Office (CIO) outlook for the next 1-3 months
How the markets performed in the previous month:
Performance of a representative index for the respective category in the preceding month (e.g. the MSCI World for global equities in developed countries)
What ETF flows were like in the global equity, bond and commodity markets: inflows and outflows in approx. 1,500 ETFs in the European ETF market in the previous month

Disclaimer

As of 20.10.2019

Source: ETF flows: DWS, Bloomberg; Performance: Reuters; CIO View: CIO Office DWS. China equity views are given relative compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. All other equity views are given in relation to the MSCI AC World Index

Without limitation, information contained herein does not constitute an offer, an invitation to offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction, nor does it constitute investment advice. The CIO View is a document produced for information purposes only and is not intended to be an offer or solicitation, or the basis for any contract to purchase or sell any security, or other instrument, or for Deutsche Bank to enter into or arrange any type of transaction as a consequence of any information contained herein. The information contained herein, inclusive of the CIO View, has been prepared without consideration of the investment needs, objectives or financial circumstances of any investor. Before making an investment decision, investors need to consider whether the investments are appropriate, in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. When making an investment decision, investors should rely on the final documentation relating to the investment. Further information is available upon investor’s request. The "green" indicator for a category does not mean that DWS recommends an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. The "red" indicator for a category does not mean that DWS advises against an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results and no guarantee is assumed that forecasts and objectives will actually be fulfilled. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, beliefs and hypothetical models or analyses that may prove to be incorrect. No guarantee can be assumed that investment goals will be achieved or earnings expectations met.

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January 2025 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights

Equities Developed Markets

With the exception of the Japanese stock market, which stagnated, all stock exchanges in the industrialized countries category recorded price gains in January. Once again, most investor money flowed into ETFs on US equities. The other regional ETFs also recorded inflows, while investors only withdrew capital from products based on UK equities. The CIO View remained unchanged.

Equities Emerging Markets

Chinese equities saw price declines in January, while there was little price movement in the other categories. New investor capital flowed into China ETFs, otherwise the movement of funds stagnated. The CIO outlook also remained unchanged.

Sovereign Bonds

The price of government bonds stagnated in January. New investor money flowed into ETFs on German and US securities. There were outflows from products on emerging market government bonds. The CIO view in the latter category changed from negative to neutral.

Corporate Bonds

The performance of corporate bond indices also stagnated in January. Fresh capital flowed into ETFs on US high-yield securities, while investors withdrew funds from the other categories. The CIO outlook for European high-yield bonds deteriorated from neutral to negative.

Commodities

Both gold and the broad basket of commodities recorded positive performance and inflows into the corresponding ETFs in January. The CIO view remained unchanged.

	Performance 01.01.-31.01.2025	ETF-Flows 01.01.-31.01.2025	CIO View for the next 1-3 months
Equities Developed Markets
Equities Global
Equities Germany
Equities UK
Equities Switzerland
Equities Eurozone
Equities Europe
Equities USA
Equities Japan
Equities Emerging Markets
Equities Emerging Markets globally
Equities Asia ex Japan
Equities China
Bond Market
Sovereigns Germany
USD Corporate IG
USD Corporate HY
Sovereigns USA
Europe Corporate IG
Europe Corporate HY
Sovereigns Emerging Markets
Sovereigns globally
Money Market
Money market EURO
Money market US-Dollar
Commodities
Broad based Commodities
Gold

December 2024 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights

Equities Developed Markets

In December, only the Japanese equity market recorded price gains, while US equities and the global developed market indices posted a negative performance. By far the most new assets were allocated in ETFs on US equities, followed by products on equities from industrialized countries worldwide, Switzerland and Japan. There were outflows from German, UK and eurozone equity ETFs. The CIO outlook remained unchanged.

Equities Emerging Markets

There was little price movement in equities in this category in December. New investment capital flowed into ETFs on emerging market equities worldwide, otherwise the movement of funds stagnated. There was also no change in the CIO view.

Sovereign Bonds

There was no significant change in the value of government bonds indices in any category in December. New investor money flowed into ETFs on US government bonds, while products on emerging market securities and global government bonds saw outflows. The CIO outlook remained unchanged.

Corporate Bonds

Performance in this category stagnated in December, with only investment-grade securities denominated in US dollars recording losses. There were inflows of funds into ETFs on European investment-grade bonds. In contrast, investors withdrew capital from products based on their US counterparts and European high-yield corporate bonds. For the latter, the CIO view improved from negative to neutral.

Commodities

There was also little movement in the prices of gold and the broad basket of commodities. New investor money flowed into gold products, while investors withdrew capital from products on the broad basket of commodities. The CIO view for gold improved from neutral to positive.

	Performance 01.12.-31.12.2024	ETF-Flows 01.12.-31.12.2024	CIO View for the next 1-3 months
Equities Developed Markets
Equities Global
Equities Germany
Equities UK
Equities Switzerland
Equities Eurozone
Equities Europe
Equities USA
Equities Japan
Equities Emerging Markets
Equities Emerging Markets globally
Equities Asia ex Japan
Equities China
Bond Market
Sovereigns Germany
USD Corporate IG
USD Corporate HY
Sovereigns USA
Europe Corporate IG
Europe Corporate HY
Sovereigns Emerging Markets
Sovereigns globally
Money Market
Money market EURO
Money market US-Dollar
Commodities
Broad based Commodities
Gold

November 2024 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights

Equities Developed Markets

In November, investors withdrew capital from ETFs on European, British, German and Japanese stock indices. The movement of funds stagnated in products on eurozone and Swiss indices. There were exceptionally high inflows into ETFs on US equities and on indices covering global industrialized equities. Japanese equities posted a negative performance in November, while there was little movement in the European, eurozone and Swiss categories. ETFs in all other regions achieved gains. There were no changes in the CIO View.

Equities Emerging Markets

Investors withdrew capital from all ETFs in this category in November. The Chinese equity market stagnated, while the remaining regional ETFs suffered losses. The CIO View remained unchanged in November.

Sovereign Bonds

German and global government bonds made gains in November, while the performance of their US and emerging market counterparts stagnated. Inflows were recorded by ETFs on US and global government bonds, while there were outflows in products on emerging market securities and hardly any movement in ETFs on German government bonds. The CIO outlook for US securities improved from neutral to positive.

Corporate Bonds

There was hardly any movement in prices across all categories. Fresh money flowed into ETFs on US high-yield bonds in November, while there were outflows in the investment-grade category for US corporate bons and ETFs on high-yield European corporate bonds. The CIO view for US high-yield securities improved from negative to neutral.

Commodities

Both gold and the broad basket of commodities recorded losses in November. There were capital outflows in gold products and hardly any movement in ETFs on the broad basket of commodities. The CIO outlook for gold deteriorated from positive to neutral.

	Performance 01.11.-30.11.2024	ETF-Flows 01.11.-30.11.2024	CIO View for the next 1-3 months
Equities Developed Markets
Equities Global
Equities Germany
Equities UK
Equities Switzerland
Equities Eurozone
Equities Europe
Equities USA
Equities Japan
Equities Emerging Markets
Equities Emerging Markets globally
Equities Asia ex Japan
Equities China
Bond Market
Sovereigns Germany
USD Corporate IG
USD Corporate HY
Sovereigns USA
Europe Corporate IG
Europe Corporate HY
Sovereigns Emerging Markets
Sovereigns globally
Money Market
Money market EURO
Money market US-Dollar
Commodities
Broad based Commodities
Gold

As of 30.06.2017

Source: ETF flows: Deutsche Bank Research; Performance: Reuters; CIO View: CIO Office Deutsche Asset Management. Emerging Markets equity views are given relative compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. All other equity views are given in relation to the MSCI AC World Index

Without limitation, information contained herein does not constitute an offer, an invitation to offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction, nor does it constitute investment advice. The CIO View is a document produced for information purposes only and is not intended to be an offer or solicitation, or the basis for any contract to purchase or sell any security, or other instrument, or for Deutsche Bank to enter into or arrange any type of transaction as a consequence of any information contained herein. The information contained herein, inclusive of the CIO View, has been prepared without consideration of the investment needs, objectives or financial circumstances of any investor. Before making an investment decision, investors need to consider whether the investments are appropriate, in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. When making an investment decision, investors should rely on the final documentation relating to the investment. Further information is available upon investor’s request. The "green" indicator for a category does not mean that Deutsche AM recommends an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. The "red" indicator for a category does not mean that Deutsche AM advises against an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results and no guarantee is assumed that forecasts and objectives will actually be fulfilled. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, beliefs and hypothetical models or analyses that may prove to be incorrect. No guarantee can be assumed that investment goals will be achieved or earnings expectations met.

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Current Investment Traffic Lights

February 2025 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights

Equities Developed Markets

Equities Emerging Markets

Sovereign Bonds

Corporate Bonds

Commodities

The concept of the Asset Allocation Traffic Light

Asset Allocation Traffic Light – Threefold information for investment decisions

Disclaimer

Archiv

January 2025 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights

Equities Developed Markets

Equities Emerging Markets

Sovereign Bonds

Corporate Bonds

Commodities

December 2024 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights

Equities Developed Markets

Equities Emerging Markets

Sovereign Bonds

Corporate Bonds

Commodities

November 2024 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights

Equities Developed Markets

Equities Emerging Markets

Sovereign Bonds

Corporate Bonds

Commodities

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