Current Investment Traffic Lights
December 2024 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights
Equities Developed Markets
In December, only the Japanese equity market recorded price gains, while US equities and the global developed market indices posted a negative performance. By far the most new assets were allocated in ETFs on US equities, followed by products on equities from industrialized countries worldwide, Switzerland and Japan. There were outflows from German, UK and eurozone equity ETFs. The CIO outlook remained unchanged.
Equities Emerging Markets
There was little price movement in equities in this category in December. New investment capital flowed into ETFs on emerging market equities worldwide, otherwise the movement of funds stagnated. There was also no change in the CIO view.
Sovereign Bonds
There was no significant change in the value of government bonds indices in any category in December. New investor money flowed into ETFs on US government bonds, while products on emerging market securities and global government bonds saw outflows. The CIO outlook remained unchanged.
Corporate Bonds
Performance in this category stagnated in December, with only investment-grade securities denominated in US dollars recording losses. There were inflows of funds into ETFs on European investment-grade bonds. In contrast, investors withdrew capital from products based on their US counterparts and European high-yield corporate bonds. For the latter, the CIO view improved from negative to neutral.
Commodities
There was also little movement in the prices of gold and the broad basket of commodities. New investor money flowed into gold products, while investors withdrew capital from products on the broad basket of commodities. The CIO view for gold improved from neutral to positive.
The concept of the Asset Allocation Traffic Light
Defining and applying the correct asset allocation – that is, the distribution of the various components in a portfolio – can be crucial for a portfolio's returns. Risk diversification can be indispensable, and therefore more important than, the choice of a single correct investment exposure. Many investors now intuitively understand the importance of asset allocation in terms of establishing a risk-diversified portfolio. In this case, the Asset Allocation Traffic Light could serve as an information guide to assist in making future investment decisions. The Asset Allocation Traffic Light provides information at a glance on developments in the main equity, bond and commodity categories. To this end, three analyses are clearly summarised for a total of 29 categories.
Asset Allocation Traffic Light – Threefold information for investment decisions
- According to the CIO View:
The DWS Chief Investment Office (CIO) outlook for the next 1-3 months - How the markets performed in the previous month:
Performance of a representative index for the respective category in the preceding month (e.g. the MSCI World for global equities in developed countries) - What ETF flows were like in the global equity, bond and commodity markets: inflows and outflows in approx. 1,500 ETFs in the European ETF market in the previous month
Disclaimer
Source: ETF flows: DWS, Bloomberg; Performance: Reuters; CIO View: CIO Office DWS. China equity views are given relative compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. All other equity views are given in relation to the MSCI AC World Index
Without limitation, information contained herein does not constitute an offer, an invitation to offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction, nor does it constitute investment advice. The CIO View is a document produced for information purposes only and is not intended to be an offer or solicitation, or the basis for any contract to purchase or sell any security, or other instrument, or for Deutsche Bank to enter into or arrange any type of transaction as a consequence of any information contained herein. The information contained herein, inclusive of the CIO View, has been prepared without consideration of the investment needs, objectives or financial circumstances of any investor. Before making an investment decision, investors need to consider whether the investments are appropriate, in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. When making an investment decision, investors should rely on the final documentation relating to the investment. Further information is available upon investor’s request. The "green" indicator for a category does not mean that DWS recommends an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. The "red" indicator for a category does not mean that DWS advises against an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results and no guarantee is assumed that forecasts and objectives will actually be fulfilled. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, beliefs and hypothetical models or analyses that may prove to be incorrect. No guarantee can be assumed that investment goals will be achieved or earnings expectations met.
Archiv
November 2024 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights
Equities Developed Markets
In November, investors withdrew capital from ETFs on European, British, German and Japanese stock indices. The movement of funds stagnated in products on eurozone and Swiss indices. There were exceptionally high inflows into ETFs on US equities and on indices covering global industrialized equities. Japanese equities posted a negative performance in November, while there was little movement in the European, eurozone and Swiss categories. ETFs in all other regions achieved gains. There were no changes in the CIO View.
Equities Emerging Markets
Investors withdrew capital from all ETFs in this category in November. The Chinese equity market stagnated, while the remaining regional ETFs suffered losses. The CIO View remained unchanged in November.
Sovereign Bonds
German and global government bonds made gains in November, while the performance of their US and emerging market counterparts stagnated. Inflows were recorded by ETFs on US and global government bonds, while there were outflows in products on emerging market securities and hardly any movement in ETFs on German government bonds. The CIO outlook for US securities improved from neutral to positive.
Corporate Bonds
There was hardly any movement in prices across all categories. Fresh money flowed into ETFs on US high-yield bonds in November, while there were outflows in the investment-grade category for US corporate bons and ETFs on high-yield European corporate bonds. The CIO view for US high-yield securities improved from negative to neutral.
Commodities
Both gold and the broad basket of commodities recorded losses in November. There were capital outflows in gold products and hardly any movement in ETFs on the broad basket of commodities. The CIO outlook for gold deteriorated from positive to neutral.
October 2024 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights
Equities Developed Markets
: In October, ETFs on the US market and on shares in global industrialized countries in particular saw high inflows. In contrast, ETFs that track the German and UK stock markets saw hardly any movement in funds. Only Japanese stocks recorded an increase in value in October, while all other stock markets stagnated or performed negatively. The CIO outlook changed from negative to neutral for US equities and from positive to neutral for European equities.
Equities Emerging Markets
In October, this category was negative in terms of performance. ETFs on global emerging market equities received high inflows, as did products on Chinese equities.
Sovereign Bonds
ETFs on global government bonds recorded significant inflows in October, while investors withdrew funds from products on US securities. Investors suffered a negative performance in US government bonds and emerging market securities in October, while there was little movement in German and global government bonds. The CIO view changed from neutral to negative for emerging market bonds.
Corporate Bonds
ETFs on US corporate bonds saw high inflows in October, while European counterparts only saw inflows from ETFs that track the high-yield market. In contrast, capital flowed out of products on investment-grade bonds from Europe. US corporate bonds with a good rating recorded a negative performance, while there was little movement in the other categories. The CIO outlook for European investment-grade securities changed from positive to neutral.
Commodities
Investment products based on gold recorded significant outflows in October. The gold price, however, developed positively. In contrast, there was little movement in the prices of the broad basket of commodities. The CIO View remained unchanged in both categories.
September 2024 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights
Equities Developed Markets
ETFs on broadly diversified indices that track the global, US and European equity markets recorded high inflows in September. In contrast, investors withdrew capital from ETFs on individual equity markets, including Japan, the UK and Germany. The performance of the German and US equity markets was positive in September, while the performance of most other equity markets stagnated.
Equities Emerging Markets
The performance of Chinese, Asian and global emerging market indices was clearly positive in September. High inflows were mainly seen in ETFs on broadly diversified indices.
Sovereign Bonds
ETFs on US Treasuries and global industrialized and emerging market indices recorded significant inflows in September. In contrast, cash flows in ETFs on German government bonds stagnated. Prices moved only slightly in September.
Corporate Bonds
ETFs on both European and US investment-grade corporate bonds recorded high inflows in September. In high-yield corporate bonds, inflows into ETFs for the US bond market stagnated, while their European counterparts recorded inflows. The CIO outlook for US corporate bonds with a investment grade rating changed from negative to neutral.
Commodities
Both investment products on a broad basket of commodities and on gold recorded outflows in September. The development of prices in both categories was clearly positive. The CIO outlook for gold changed from neutral to positive.
As of 30.06.2017
Source: ETF flows: Deutsche Bank Research; Performance: Reuters; CIO View: CIO Office Deutsche Asset Management. Emerging Markets equity views are given relative compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. All other equity views are given in relation to the MSCI AC World Index
Without limitation, information contained herein does not constitute an offer, an invitation to offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction, nor does it constitute investment advice. The CIO View is a document produced for information purposes only and is not intended to be an offer or solicitation, or the basis for any contract to purchase or sell any security, or other instrument, or for Deutsche Bank to enter into or arrange any type of transaction as a consequence of any information contained herein. The information contained herein, inclusive of the CIO View, has been prepared without consideration of the investment needs, objectives or financial circumstances of any investor. Before making an investment decision, investors need to consider whether the investments are appropriate, in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. When making an investment decision, investors should rely on the final documentation relating to the investment. Further information is available upon investor’s request. The "green" indicator for a category does not mean that Deutsche AM recommends an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. The "red" indicator for a category does not mean that Deutsche AM advises against an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results and no guarantee is assumed that forecasts and objectives will actually be fulfilled. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, beliefs and hypothetical models or analyses that may prove to be incorrect. No guarantee can be assumed that investment goals will be achieved or earnings expectations met.