Current Investment Traffic Lights
October 2024 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights
Equities Developed Markets
: In October, ETFs on the US market and on shares in global industrialized countries in particular saw high inflows. In contrast, ETFs that track the German and UK stock markets saw hardly any movement in funds. Only Japanese stocks recorded an increase in value in October, while all other stock markets stagnated or performed negatively. The CIO outlook changed from negative to neutral for US equities and from positive to neutral for European equities.
Equities Emerging Markets
In October, this category was negative in terms of performance. ETFs on global emerging market equities received high inflows, as did products on Chinese equities.
Sovereign Bonds
ETFs on global government bonds recorded significant inflows in October, while investors withdrew funds from products on US securities. Investors suffered a negative performance in US government bonds and emerging market securities in October, while there was little movement in German and global government bonds. The CIO view changed from neutral to negative for emerging market bonds.
Corporate Bonds
ETFs on US corporate bonds saw high inflows in October, while European counterparts only saw inflows from ETFs that track the high-yield market. In contrast, capital flowed out of products on investment-grade bonds from Europe. US corporate bonds with a good rating recorded a negative performance, while there was little movement in the other categories. The CIO outlook for European investment-grade securities changed from positive to neutral.
Commodities
Investment products based on gold recorded significant outflows in October. The gold price, however, developed positively. In contrast, there was little movement in the prices of the broad basket of commodities. The CIO View remained unchanged in both categories.
The concept of the Asset Allocation Traffic Light
Defining and applying the correct asset allocation – that is, the distribution of the various components in a portfolio – can be crucial for a portfolio's returns. Risk diversification can be indispensable, and therefore more important than, the choice of a single correct investment exposure. Many investors now intuitively understand the importance of asset allocation in terms of establishing a risk-diversified portfolio. In this case, the Asset Allocation Traffic Light could serve as an information guide to assist in making future investment decisions. The Asset Allocation Traffic Light provides information at a glance on developments in the main equity, bond and commodity categories. To this end, three analyses are clearly summarised for a total of 29 categories.
Asset Allocation Traffic Light – Threefold information for investment decisions
- According to the CIO View:
The DWS Chief Investment Office (CIO) outlook for the next 1-3 months - How the markets performed in the previous month:
Performance of a representative index for the respective category in the preceding month (e.g. the MSCI World for global equities in developed countries) - What ETF flows were like in the global equity, bond and commodity markets: inflows and outflows in approx. 1,500 ETFs in the European ETF market in the previous month
Disclaimer
Source: ETF flows: DWS, Bloomberg; Performance: Reuters; CIO View: CIO Office DWS. China equity views are given relative compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. All other equity views are given in relation to the MSCI AC World Index
Without limitation, information contained herein does not constitute an offer, an invitation to offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction, nor does it constitute investment advice. The CIO View is a document produced for information purposes only and is not intended to be an offer or solicitation, or the basis for any contract to purchase or sell any security, or other instrument, or for Deutsche Bank to enter into or arrange any type of transaction as a consequence of any information contained herein. The information contained herein, inclusive of the CIO View, has been prepared without consideration of the investment needs, objectives or financial circumstances of any investor. Before making an investment decision, investors need to consider whether the investments are appropriate, in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. When making an investment decision, investors should rely on the final documentation relating to the investment. Further information is available upon investor’s request. The "green" indicator for a category does not mean that DWS recommends an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. The "red" indicator for a category does not mean that DWS advises against an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results and no guarantee is assumed that forecasts and objectives will actually be fulfilled. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, beliefs and hypothetical models or analyses that may prove to be incorrect. No guarantee can be assumed that investment goals will be achieved or earnings expectations met.
Archiv
September 2024 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights
Equities Developed Markets
ETFs on broadly diversified indices that track the global, US and European equity markets recorded high inflows in September. In contrast, investors withdrew capital from ETFs on individual equity markets, including Japan, the UK and Germany. The performance of the German and US equity markets was positive in September, while the performance of most other equity markets stagnated.
Equities Emerging Markets
The performance of Chinese, Asian and global emerging market indices was clearly positive in September. High inflows were mainly seen in ETFs on broadly diversified indices.
Sovereign Bonds
ETFs on US Treasuries and global industrialized and emerging market indices recorded significant inflows in September. In contrast, cash flows in ETFs on German government bonds stagnated. Prices moved only slightly in September.
Corporate Bonds
ETFs on both European and US investment-grade corporate bonds recorded high inflows in September. In high-yield corporate bonds, inflows into ETFs for the US bond market stagnated, while their European counterparts recorded inflows. The CIO outlook for US corporate bonds with a investment grade rating changed from negative to neutral.
Commodities
Both investment products on a broad basket of commodities and on gold recorded outflows in September. The development of prices in both categories was clearly positive. The CIO outlook for gold changed from neutral to positive.
August 2024 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights
Equities Developed Markets
ETFs on US and global equity indices recorded the highest inflows in August. Inflows were also positive for ETFs focussing on the UK and Switzerland. The equity markets in these two countries also recorded the highest price gains last month.
Equities Emerging Markets
ETFs on the Chinese equity market recorded outflows in August, while there was little movement in global and Asian emerging market ETFs. The performance of all emerging market indices stagnated in August.
Sovereign Bonds
All government bond categories saw significant inflows last month, with US government bond ETFs seeing the strongest inflows. Indices on global bond markets and US Treasuries recorded the highest performance.
Corporate Bonds
ETFs on European corporate bonds recorded high inflows, both for bonds investment grade ratings and for high-yield products. The performance of European corporate bonds stagnated. The performance of US counterparts was clearly positive. ETFs on US corporate bonds with investment grade ratings recorded inflows. Investors withdrew capital from the high-yield segment. The CIO outlook for US high-yield bonds changed from neutral to negative.
Commodities
Gold prices rose significantly in August. Listed gold products recorded significant inflows. The CIO outlook for gold changed from positive to neutral. The performance of the broad basket of commodities was clearly negative in August, commodity products recorded outflows.
July 2024 – Asset Allocation Framework Highlights
Equities Developed Markets
ETFs on globally diversified and US indices recorded the highest inflows in July. ETFs focussing on the UK and Switzerland also attracted new capital, while Japan ETFs saw outflows. Prices on the UK and Swiss equity markets rose in July, while the other industrialised country markets showed only moderate price changes.
Equities Emerging Markets
Capital was withdrawn from ETFs focussing on China in July, while there was little movement in the other categories. The equity indices of the emerging markets changed only slightly in July.
Sovereign Bonds
ETFs on US Treasuries as well as global and emerging market government bonds saw significant inflows in July. Price changes in indices on US and global government bonds were also clearly positive in July.
Corporate Bonds
High inflows were seen in ETFs on euro corporate bond indices in July, both in the category with investment grade ratings and in high-yield bonds. The picture for US corporate bonds was split: Inflows in bonds with investment grade ratings, outflows in high-yield products. The performance of US corporate bonds was clearly positive. The CIO View for euro high-yield bonds changed from neutral to negative.
Commodities
Gold prices developed positively in July, with listed gold products recording significant inflows. In contrast, the prices of the broad basket of commodities declined. Capital was withdrawn from broad commodity ETFs. The CIO view for gold changed from neutral to positive.
As of 30.06.2017
Source: ETF flows: Deutsche Bank Research; Performance: Reuters; CIO View: CIO Office Deutsche Asset Management. Emerging Markets equity views are given relative compared to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. All other equity views are given in relation to the MSCI AC World Index
Without limitation, information contained herein does not constitute an offer, an invitation to offer or a recommendation to enter into any transaction, nor does it constitute investment advice. The CIO View is a document produced for information purposes only and is not intended to be an offer or solicitation, or the basis for any contract to purchase or sell any security, or other instrument, or for Deutsche Bank to enter into or arrange any type of transaction as a consequence of any information contained herein. The information contained herein, inclusive of the CIO View, has been prepared without consideration of the investment needs, objectives or financial circumstances of any investor. Before making an investment decision, investors need to consider whether the investments are appropriate, in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. When making an investment decision, investors should rely on the final documentation relating to the investment. Further information is available upon investor’s request. The "green" indicator for a category does not mean that Deutsche AM recommends an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. The "red" indicator for a category does not mean that Deutsche AM advises against an investment in a particular asset class and/or product. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results and no guarantee is assumed that forecasts and objectives will actually be fulfilled. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, beliefs and hypothetical models or analyses that may prove to be incorrect. No guarantee can be assumed that investment goals will be achieved or earnings expectations met.